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This almost certainly won’t happen to the ISS. At the same time, it’s a far more extreme version of the only way an American space station has ever come down. In 1979, after years spent vacant in orbit, Skylab, the US’s first space station, started sinking toward the atmosphere, where it threatened to fall and drop molten spacecraft parts on Earth. At that point, NASA officials had to remotely wake up its computers and, with only limited control of the station, direct it over a location that would endanger the fewest humans.
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The atmosphere is a ruthless incinerator, and, no matter how the ISS comes down, most of it would be vaporized. But there’s still that chunk of station that could survive reentry. In the best case, where we’re prepared, air traffic controllers and maritime authorities can issue alerts. The station will shed pieces into the sky, and Australians might get a nice view before things kerplunk into the sea. Then the remains of this historic feat of human engineering will sink to the ocean floor, another carcass left to the algae and the microplastics.
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